Iran and Iraq make some sort of awesome deal with the Kurds of Iraq to help expel the US-Americans from Iraq and they will be given assistance to fight President Al Qaeda in Syria and thereby save their people in that country. [This is far-fetched, I realize, but let's just go with it.] Maybe the Kurds get some more concessions that are real and that do not frighten the Iranians or the Iraqis.
Iraq and Iran conquer Kuwait outright. Iraq accepts Iranian leadership and assists Iran financially for its sacrifices. [Ian Welsh, or someone at his blog, talked about Iraq getting financial guarantees from China, based on the colonialist holding of Iraqi oil revenues in US-American banks, to be doled out to Iraq at the USA's discretion. Iraqi oil is priced in Yuan, or China gets preferred status or something, and Iraq prospers and has money to pay Iran.
This is the end of the petro-dollar.
Iran continues to control the Strait of Hormuz and imposes a tariff on all shipping (or from only belligerent or cowardly, enabling states) to pay for its postwar reconstruction.
Depending on what happens to the de-salinization plants, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordaon, the UAE, and, to a lesser extent, Qatar and Oman, are much weaker entities. If they all survive as political entities is questionable. Most of their financial assets are in US or European banks.
If they bring about the destruction of their de-salinization plants due to their own stupidity, then it will definitely be all over for them. Millions will have to flee for their lives. There simply won't be any water for millions of people to drink.
If they manage to avoid that, ... I don't know. Having brought this debacle down upon their people, the monarchs might be overthrown. If that doesn't happen, they might federate into some larger entity that takes its marching orders from Iran.
Iran will demand a high price for oil, to help it pay for its reconstruction.
I'd say the know-how that built hyper-sonic missiles, and the drone infrastructure, and all of that, will mean a much more industrialized postwar, post-sanctions, Iran.
Russia won't mind a higher price for oil. And both Iran and Russia will be considerate of China's feelings.
US bases will be gone.
Israel will probably cease to exist. It might become a province within Palestine. Something smaller than the original UN deal from the 1940's. But I don't think that many Israelis will stick around for the inevitable Truth and Reconciliation tribunals. They'll get out of Dodge. Palestine will probably be enlarged at Jordan's expense.
I don't know what will happen to Lebanon. Pro-Israel/Pro-USA individuals and organizations will be devastated. But I don't know.
Iran, Iraq, and any allies, will impose a new government on Syria.
Turkey will be left alone. Untrusted and unloved.
2 comments:
Well, I won't say it's impossible, but it's pretty maximalist. It would require some people capable of having an impact on things in Iraq, Kurdish Iraq and a couple other places to have a lot of guts and vision, which, um, I haven't seen much evidence of that to date.
I do think the Gulf states will be weakened, which is bad for them considering the next act in a few years is the part where nobody wants their oil any more because energy transition. And it seems likely the US presence in the region will be weakened. And if the Trumpites are ever overthrown, whatever comes next, whether resurgent progressives or even more or less normal crappy Democrats, will probably have had it about up to here with support for Israel--between public opinion and their awareness of how much this idiotic Israel-created war has cost them.
So between reduced support from the US, probably similarly reduced support from Europe, large scale emigration, the damage done in the war, and the loss of the impression of invulnerability, Israel will also be weakened. Weakened enough to be forced into some real and relatively non-evil solution to the situation with Palestine? Ehhh, maybe. But at least weakened enough to have to shut the fuck up a lot more and cool it with the constant bombings and assassinations.
Iran will probably be charging tolls on the strait, which is good for them, bad for the world economy, but probably good for the pace of energy transition, so probably a win overall.
Russia will, already do, have a short term win from oil prices being higher, but like Canada they need to wake up and smell the coffee on just how long that product will be worth anything. If I were Putin I would be planning to try to wrap the war up as soon as possible and then plow that wartime economy straight into stuff like wind and solar power and EVs and transit and railways while I still had oil revenue to use for it.
Purple library guy,
I'll admit that the parts about Syria and the Kurds are quite far out there.
On the other hand, it's clear that the puppet Arab dictatorships are literally built on sand. They are VERY unpopular with their populations. And Kuwait was carved out of Iraq by the British to weaken it.
All of them were living in la-la-land. Thinking they could maintain their wealth in the post-oil world by, what? Tourism? "Investing" in the AI bubble?
Why would Iran let these vipers alone after this war is won? Persians are not Arabs, so I don't think they'll impose their will directly, but they will have a say in what sorts of governments replace those super-corrupt puppet-states.
I honestly there will be major changes in the region and that includes the re-drawing of national borders.
As for the Israelis, ... IF Iran wins (which I think they will), they aren't going to be satisfied with a sullen, vengeful, militarily capable state, seeking to rebuild its abilities for Round Three. The zionist entity will have to go. Israel's apartheid system will have to be dismantled.
Iran is suffering a lot at the moment. They're going to push maximalist demands.
Obviously I don't know what's going to happen. But I'm just putting this out there.
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