When I started the last post I had planned on talking much more about the stuff that brought us to "Operation Epstein Fury" and how we needed to respond to this atrocity. But it ended up being more a post about European imperialism and how this war might represent its final death knell. (Apparently a "knell" is a tolling of a bell. And that can go on for a while. But it eventually stops. So, yes: "final death knell.")
And I don't think that was unproductive. We do need to understand Iran's war against "Operation Epstein Fury" in that regard. This is the inglorious end of a rather nasty era. (Which is not to say that the rest of the world was heavenly before the Europeans conquered it. But, let's be honest here. Whatever its precedents, European imperialism was a bad thing.)
Regardless of what "Operation Epstein Fury" represents, let's try to deal with two things here:
1) CAN Iran achieve its goals of expelling both Israel and the USA from the Middle East (henceforth "West Asia")
and
2) At least a brief description of the cultural/moral failure that brought The West (USA, Europe, Anglo-colonies of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa) and various fellow travellers (Japan, Modi's India)
Iran, as has been claimed by the current Indian government multiple times over the years, has long been a strong friend and civilizational neighbour to India. Since the late 2000s, however, India has been downgrading its economic relations with Iran under pressure from the United States, in a bid to get closer to Washington. India signed the nuclear deal with the US, which so far has yielded little benefit in the field of nuclear energy and, in return, abandoned Iran’s gas pipelines, a project that would have been vital for India’s energy security.
...
India’s complete abandonment of non-alignment, autonomy, and political spine in the face of US hegemony under Trump—under the Modi government—stems from shallow, opportunistic calculations of India’s economic interests. More precisely, these are the economic interests of India’s large corporate houses, which Narendra Modi has championed throughout his political career, and whose priorities have been the cornerstone of both domestic and foreign policy since he took office.
India’s top domestic monopoly houses have been keenly pursuing partnerships with both Israeli and US corporations. With little concern for investing in the development of sovereign national capabilities in technology, research, and innovation, these Indian corporations have recently been entering subordinate technological partnerships with US firms as a strategy for their next phase of growth. In doing so, they are seeking access to the US market while leaving India’s domestic economy and technological base underdeveloped and impoverished.
The Indian government’s foreign policy and domestic economic strategy have been structured around these corporate interests. The government has been assiduously pursuing a subordinated partnership with the United States solely to this end. There can be no other justification. This relationship of subordination that India has cultivated with the US is certainly not aligned with the interests of its own people.
...
This is where the intellectual hollowness of Modi’s economic and political strategy for India becomes apparent. The path India is pursuing internationally, pandering to US misadventures, is not only morally and ethically wrong, but it is also against the material interests of India and its people. One can only hope that India discovers its spine and stands up for the rest of the Global South in the current scenario, though this seems unlikely under Modi.
Anyway, ... From what I've read about Iran's military chances, it seems very likely that if the USA and Israel's claims of X amount of damage to Iranian infrastructure and X amount of losses of Iranian missiles and launchers are bullshit (and the probably are) while Iranian claims of their capabilities are true (and they might be), then it looks like Iran WILL achieve its maximalist demands. Those demands being the end of the state of Israel (As I understand it, the Jewish population of the former state of Israel may remain, but there will definitely be a "Truth and Reconciliation" process undertaken by the new state of Palestine.), and the expulsion of all US bases in the region.
Here's what Ian Welsh has to say: "Iran is Winning & It's Not Close"
I see zero prospect of America and Israel winning this war, and if Iran has any sense they won’t allow a ceasefire till they have done enough damage that the US and Israel will be scared to start a new war.
Nukes? Tactical nukes won’t win the war. They’d have to hit Iran with the strategic nukes. All tac-nukes would do is turn the entire world against Israel and the US. Strategic nukes would be a war crime even Europe couldn’t ignore and turn both states into complete pariahs. They might win the war, but they’d lose the peace. And, again, Iran has everything it needs to make a few dirty nukes, and one hit on Israel renders the entire country uninhabitable.
Invasion? Impossible. Iran has a large military and perfect terrain. Any forces sent will be slaughtered. It won’t even be close, it will be a massacre, the worst US loss in generations.
Followed by Eve Ottenberg talking about Israel going nuclear in desperation:
With Tel Aviv and Haifa incinerated and bombed to smithereens, ALL Americans advised to quit the Gulf forthwith and the hospitals at Ramstein military base in Germany awash in the blood of hundreds of dead and wounded American soldiers, it’s not a moment too soon to ask whether the psychotics running Israel, confronted with an existential threat, would resort to a tactical nuke. I think the answer is yes. And that’s where two things come into play: first, the extent of damage at the Israeli nuclear site, Dimona, and second, China and Russia. Let’s start with China and Russia. Because this is the moment when it becomes very important for nuclear armed Moscow and Beijing to step in and put an end to this lethal lunacy.
Pakistan offered nukes to Iran, should Israel threaten it with atomic Armageddon back during the 12 Day War. Things have changed since then. They got worse. Not just the deranged Israeli rulers, but also Washington under Trump may itch for an atomic final solution rather than cleanly losing a war and losing face. Russia and China, as historian Tarik Cyril Amar posted on X, must enter the chat, with their own nukes, to stop this pathology before the insane asylum inmates, who happen to run much of the world, decide to irradiate it. Russia and China are the only ones who can – and they have good reason to do so. Iran is an ally. Moscow has assisted its Persian friend with targeting of U.S. troops and bases, while Beijing has given Tehran scads of satellite intelligence on U.S. bases. Furthermore, Russia announced in early March that it supports Iran in this fight. Days later, Kremlin foreign minister Sergei Lavrov blasted Gulf potentates as the cowards they are regarding the U.S. In short, the Kremlin boldly took a side; and it wasn’t the psychopathic Empire’s. So did Beijing, with its dozens of military cargo planes landing in Tehran and unloading who knows how much weaponry and air defense.
Next up: the apocalyptic damage at Dimona. One thing we learned in the Ukraine War is that Russian statistics are unassailable. Well, the Russian stats, released March 9, coming out of the Iran War, are devastating to Israel: In the first 72 hours of the war, Israel lost 700 military, intel and nuclear experts. This is a shocking kill list, and there’s no reason to doubt Moscow’s info. At this rate – because who knows how many more such people Israel has lost since – Jerusalem might wanna consider an unconditional surrender. Why? Well, according to Russian intelligence, one for instance: Israel has completely lost control of Dimona, its most essential nuclear site and the key to its supposedly nonexistent nuclear arsenal. If this is accurate and Israel now lacks its atomic insurance policy, we don’t need to worry about Jerusalem deploying a tactical nuke. But Washington could still be a problem. Presumably, Moscow and Beijing, both armed to the teeth with atomic weapons, can make the would-be Beltway Bombers see reason.
My two cents about Pakistan aiding Iran: Pakistan has already signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia wherein Pakistan's nukes will be used to defend the Kingdom from any adversary. But Pakistan is also friendly with Iran. I'm certain there have been recent talks between the two nations about the possibility of nuclear weapons in the struggle against Israel. As well, given the demonstrated weakness of Saudi Arabia (and all the rest of the decadent, debauched Gulf dictatorships) Pakistan might be sensing a major power-shift in Iran's favour throughout the Muslim world. The Saudis have pretty much been sidelined.
So, Iran has been building up its arsenal for years. Last June it didn't even get started with its most dangerous missiles. And Israel was begging for peace and Trump did some performative bombings and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. (I have mixed feelings about the wisdom of Iran's granting of a reprieve to Israel. On the one hand, some could say it was naive and it just opened Iran up for future abuse from these shameless psychopaths. They could have bashed the shit out of Israel before Trump had been able to bring all those military assets into the area. Plus, they've had the example of NATO abusing the Minsk Accords between Ukraine and Russia which European leaders later admitted were just ruses to buy time to build up Ukraine's military to strike at Russia.
On the other hand, by agreeing to a ceasefire, Iran was demonstrating maturity and restraint. This would be recognized by all the countries in the world that aren't moronic shit-lickers. (This is why Canada, whether it's Carney or Poilievre, continues to see Iran as a source of "regional instability." Because Canada is a shameless shit-licker of Trump's dirty anus. ELBOWS UP!!!) Which is important.
Also, in a drawn-out war, Iran would have to husband its weapons. To do that would require something like destroying the US radar installations in the Gulf puppet-dictatorships. Which is not something that the USA would take lightly. If Iran had been able to destroy Israel last June, doing so would have meant war with the United States. Israel would have been in flames, but Trump would have sent all his aircraft carriers to avenge the zionist entity.
It seems that Iran wanted to avoid this war. It really did. As with Obama's JCPOA, it negotiated in good faith (as I honestly believe Obama did) that it wanted a peaceful, civilian nuclear program. But just as he unilaterally tore-up the JCPOA, and as he bombed Hamas negotiators in Qatar, Trump used negotiations as an opportunity to abuse, and then betray his opponents. Trump's whole life has been spent absorbing sick, degenerate values, abusing the system and using the system's corruption to escape the consequences. He even escaped consequences for his actions against Russia in the Ukraine War. Both China and Russia have been excessively tolerant and patient with Trump. They're probably trying to sensibly avoid World War III for the sake of everyone on the planet.
"Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad."
That is the collective USA at the moment. Degenerate late-capitalist, financialized, propagandized, hubris-ized. For too long. Always a capitalist nation. Founded on racism and hypocrisy. [The USA is the topic under discussion, not Canada, which has its own deficiencies.] The decline went into hyper-drive with the election of the airhead (later senile airhead) right-wing corporate shill Ronald Reagan, plummeted further under the ventriloquism act of Shit-head Cheney and his dummy Dubya. And now we have this ridiculous monstrosity, peroxide-blonde comb-over, orange spray-on tan, admitted rapist, documented grifter, inarticulate, pompous, self-aggrandizing, rapist Trump.
That's some of the moral failure I wanted to talk about. But now I'm tired of typing.
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