Spit-Balling

 

Iran and Iraq make some sort of awesome deal with the Kurds of Iraq to help expel the US-Americans from Iraq and they will be given assistance to fight President Al Qaeda in Syria and thereby save their people in that country. [This is far-fetched, I realize, but let's just go with it.] Maybe the Kurds get some more concessions that are real and that do not frighten the Iranians or the Iraqis.

Iraq and Iran conquer Kuwait outright.  Iraq accepts Iranian leadership and assists Iran financially for its sacrifices.  [Ian Welsh, or someone at his blog, talked about Iraq getting financial guarantees from China, based on the colonialist holding of Iraqi oil revenues in US-American banks, to be doled out to Iraq at the USA's discretion.  Iraqi oil is priced in Yuan, or China gets preferred status or something, and Iraq prospers and has money to pay Iran.

This is the end of the petro-dollar. 

Iran continues to control the Strait of Hormuz and imposes a tariff on all shipping (or from only belligerent or cowardly, enabling states) to pay for its postwar reconstruction.

Depending on what happens to the de-salinization plants, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordaon, the UAE, and, to a lesser extent, Qatar and Oman, are much weaker entities.  If they all survive as political entities is questionable.  Most of their financial assets are in US or European banks.

If they bring about the destruction of their de-salinization plants due to their own stupidity, then it will definitely be all over for them.  Millions will have to flee for their lives.  There simply won't be any water for millions of people to drink. 

If they manage to avoid that, ... I don't know.  Having brought this debacle down upon their people, the monarchs might be overthrown.  If that doesn't happen, they might federate into some larger entity that takes its marching orders from Iran.

Iran will demand a high price for oil, to help it pay for its reconstruction.

I'd say the know-how that built hyper-sonic missiles, and the drone infrastructure, and all of that, will mean a much more industrialized postwar, post-sanctions, Iran.

Russia won't mind a higher price for oil.  And both Iran and Russia will be considerate of China's feelings.

US bases will be gone.

Israel will probably cease to exist.  It might become a province within Palestine.  Something smaller than the original UN deal from the 1940's.  But I don't think that many Israelis will stick around for the inevitable Truth and Reconciliation tribunals.  They'll get out of Dodge.  Palestine will probably be enlarged at Jordan's expense.

I don't know what will happen to Lebanon.  Pro-Israel/Pro-USA individuals and organizations will be devastated.  But I don't know.

Iran, Iraq, and any allies, will impose a new government on Syria.

Turkey will be left alone.  Untrusted and unloved.