I don't know why anybody was bothering trying to seal a deal with Trump since his solemn word isn't worth air it's spoken on. But Trump apparently demanded some last minute surrenders of essential national sovereignty and even the lickspittle Carney was forced to stand up to him.
I'm not a big fan of Canada, but it's a tad better than the USA, so I'm opposed to assimilation. I suspect the vast majority of Canadians are too. Whether US-Americans have the stomach for the conquest and extended occupation of Canada is also an open question.
Whether members of the US military would want to attack Canada, ... in their eyes a loyal, but sovereign ally, is also questionable.
Canada is only a tenth the size of the USA economically. So Trump's 50% tariffs are going to hurt. But they're also going to hurt US-American consumers. Canada is the USA's third-biggest trading partner and they don't buy our resources out of the goodness of their hearts. On top of the rising cost of oil and everything dependent upon oil (including diesel for food delivery) there's all the other brainless sanctions Trump is applying on other countries around the world. US-American citizens/consumers/households are going to be pissed.
Trump's idiocy occurs as he refuses to admit defeat against Iran in West Asia. As the rest of the US ruling class refuses to admit defeat everywhere. As their selfish schemes and corruption destroy the foundations of the very society their wealth is based upon. As their delusional economic political-economic theories become less and less capable of disguising their failure. As Russia pushes the Ukraine (and NATO) to the breaking point. As China passes the USA in economic, military and "soft" diplomatic power. As they expose their total moral bankruptcy in supporting Israel's nazi-genocidal policies.
Obviously what Carney needs to do is employ some Modern Monetary Theory and spend money employing Canadians whilst (in congruence with MMT) taxing the wealthy to limit inflation. I doubt Carney will do this. He will try (and fail) to sell militarism and austerity.
The bond markets are giving their verdict and someone other than Trump would be toast. But Trump is one of the most unhinged megalomaniacs to ever occupy the Oval Office. Plus, he's building an entire infrastructure to carry out a detailed, ruthless plan of election-stealing.
Late-capitalism is showing itself for what it really is.
2 comments:
We have a lot of trade with the US. But we don't HAVE to. As Ian Welsh said, there is nothing we buy from the US that we couldn't buy elsewhere, nothing we sell to the US that we couldn't find other buyers for. And right now, there are lots of other people also looking for alternatives to trade with the US, so there's certainly opportunities to take some of that space.
There are a couple of caveats though. Mostly, cars and oil. Our car business is too integrated with the US and it's going to take some untangling. The Mexicans are in the same boat, maybe we could work together to get around the Americans. But we should really try to keep the supply chains a lot more in-house this time around. Still, I have to admit the process around that is likely to hurt.
And then there's the oil . . . the heavy bitumen Alberta produces doesn't have a lot of refineries ready to use it except American ones. But first, I notice the Trumpies are sort of avoiding tariffing the oil. And second, that's a product we won't be producing for very long anyway because despite all the Albertans' hopium (and I include Carney in that--he is technically an Albertan, after all), the energy transition is happening and pretty soon the only oil still selling will be the cheapest stuff.
Purple library guy,
All good points. Both Canada and Mexico have it within them to achieve economic sovereignty. But, ... So far from God, so close to the United States.
In many respects Trump has achieved victories by pushing things well past acceptable norms and legalities.
On paper, the USA could militarily conquer us with ease. But politically/diplomatically is another story.
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