Roger Harris's "Whither Mltipolarity in a Changing World Order" at CounterPunch is one of the best summaries of the current world political-power situation as I've read in a while. It is restrained in its assertions. It is comprehensive. And it never loses sight of the importance of the socialist project for the future of the world. (And this includes accepting the current weakness, well-nigh irrelevance of the socialist project.)
This period that we live in is arguably shaped by three elements: two moribund (the implosion of the USSR and the centrality of US imperialism) and one vital (the promise of multipolarity). The camp associated with the US is consolidating at the same time that a countervailing multipolar tendency is emerging. Major changes are reshaping the world order, I contend, but the outcome is not yet clear.
While factors such as the status of US dollar dominance are important, the deeper issue is the condition of the popular classes and the strength of their institutions, which need to be the measure for determining which way the geopolitical winds are blowing.
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The first symptom is the implosion of the Soviet Union and with it the dissolution of the socialist bloc. Although occurring over 30 years ago, the long-term consequences may not be sufficiently appreciated in current leftist analyses. Contributing to this oversight is an underlying anti-communist bias which, contrary to all historical evidence, associates capitalism with democracy and self-actualization.
China has emerged as a world power and even as a possible contender to US hegemony. But China has also become thoroughly integrated into the international capitalist market. In the absence of a socialist bloc, countries striving for socialist development – e.g., Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Belarus, People’s Republic of Korea, Eritrea, Laos, etc. – must also struggle in this market. There they are vulnerable to economic warfare designed to overthrow their political leadership.
Chinese initiatives such as the Belt and Road offer trade and a vital life support to countries like Cuba. But the Chinese initiatives do not rise to the level of the socialist solidarity of the former USSR, which enabled countries like resource-poor Cuba in that former time to achieve first world standards in, for example, health care and education.
The second symptom is the US as the sole imperialist superpower. No other nation comes close to its military, economic, political, and even cultural domination. Understanding the centrality of US imperialism, I contend, is essential to comprehending the interregnum.
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The third symptom of the interregnum is the promise – but not yet the reality – of a multipolar world. This hopeful trend portends new openings in an evolving historical dynamic.
A majority of the world’s population has remained neutral in the Ukraine conflict, despite strong US/western pressure. A host of non-western-aligned economies are making tentative steps to transacting commerce in currencies other than dollars, pounds, yens, or euros. A so-called Pink Tide in Latin America has replaced a number of conservative regimes. China is emerging not only as an economic power, but diplomatically has helped broker closer relations between traditional adversaries Iran and Saudi Arabia as well as floated a peace proposal for Ukraine.
All these favorable developments foreshadow a change in the geopolitical climate. The vision of a multipolar world informs the progressive impulse for a better world.
Such a world is possible only if the centrality of US imperialism is replaced by a new order. Such a reordering is a necessary pre-condition for a better world. Currently a realignment is being led by major counter-hegemonic powers such as China and Russia and more regional powers such as Brazil and Iran (and before its dismembering by Libya in Africa).
Multipolarity is not the ultimate goal, but it is an intermediary step in the struggle against imperialism. More than just a reshuffling of the deck of world power relationships is needed.
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NATO is much more than an alliance. It is an imperial army under US command, whose constituents have relinquished sovereignty for integration.
Just a few years ago French President Emmanuel Macron declared NATO “braindead,” while key ally Germany was moving in the direction of reducing its investment in NATO. That refreshing breeze has reversed direction and has assumed gale force proportions.
Rather than languishing, NATO has in fact consolidated. Now its partners have upped their military expenditures, sacrificing domestic development, as they increase their purchase of military equipment from the US. Particularly ominous is the inclusion of traditionally neutral Sweden and Finland on or near the borders of Russia.
Meanwhile, Japan is emerging as the third largest military after China. The former Axis power is an immediate neighbor of China and part of the US strategy to militarily encircle China.
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A further admonition is in order. Due to the failure of neoliberalism – the current form of capitalism – a populist right has emerged in reaction. The new far-right prime minister of Italy has expressed sentiments favorable to Mussolini. Modi in India represents a reactionary fundamentalist Hindi current. Bukele in El Salvador, after trampling civil liberties in a crackdown on gangs, enjoys astronomical 90% approval ratings.
The ever more manifest bankruptcy of the liberal/social democratic model does not guarantee a progressive outcome.
Finally, for those of us who still consider themselves to be socialist, we should not abandon the goal of socialist revolution. Yet there has been no major socialist revolution in the last half century, and no new socialist revolutions are on the horizon. A further sobering reality is that all existing polities, which have been striving for socialism, are struggling for survival, retrenching, and being forced to adopt neoliberal remedies.
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And even more significant are the internal contradictions of a decadent capitalism, which have not fully matured but which foretell a changing world order. But before the left can write the obit on capitalism, recall the system’s ability to paper over contradictions with military Keynesianism, quantitative easing, and most recently with the post-COVID rebound.
We will know that a new multipolar order has emerged when the material conditions of the people of Haiti, Afghanistan, Syria, Cuba, etc. begin to improve rather than continuing on the current trajectory of ever increasing immiseration. Likewise, institutions of working class power, such as unions and leftist parties, will be ascendent in leading the transformation.
I will only say that I think the current solidarity of the USA's political bloc seems to me to be a forced mustering of strength for the challenge of facing powerful rivals in a time of hegemonic decline. Biden and Trump seem almost perfectly cast to represent the movements they represent. Biden is a senile, doddering, shell of the intellectually bankrupt philosophy he had always been a useful idiot for. Trump reflects the grotesque nature of right-wing populism as well as [vis-a-vis Biden] the relatively greater vitality of this demographic.
The USA continues to possess great wealth, power and potential. But so long as it remains enslaved by a totally corrupt, empirically worthless financial-sector oligarchy (with similarly parastical personalities running actual industry into the ground) it will decline. Much of the USA's (and the UK's) gdp are the product of the financial markets. This is nothing but froth for the most part. It is the growth of prices in financial assets caused by speculation, fraud, public subsidies and money creation and (until recently) zero interest rates. Very little provides investment in needed industries and too much of it leaks out into the purchase of things such as real-estate driving up the cost of living (and the cost of doing business) and into the production of luxury items for the owners of financial wealth.
The protest movements in Europe provide some potential for hope if they can rid Europe of the bureaucratic-oligarch ruling class that has cravenly elected to serve the USA's dictates.
This could still go anywhere. But my belief is that defeat in the Ukraine, uprisings in Europe, and continued social unrest in the USA brought about by the oligarchy's rapacious looting, will compel the USA to accept the new world order. But what the hell do I know?
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