Trump is a racist. But a very superficial one. He probably doesn't like Jews, but he can get along with them if there's something in it for him. He definitely looks down on Black people. But he's capable of being friendly with Black celebrities and athletes who are nice to him. I've seen enough videos of Trump one-on-one with a person, or with small groups, to see that he is capable of a glib, superficial charm. He's always had this natural, cunning talent for playing JUST inside the law. In the same way that he can shrug-off all criticisms and insults as unimportant to him while relentlessly going for the jugular on other people's weaknesses, he can summon the appearance of genuine caring and concern for them. But it's all transactional for him.
From this article, the sense that I get is that Trump wanted a second term because he likes winning. He's had four years to think about how he had been President of the United States of America and now, thanks to his relentless pushing of the bullshit "stolen election" theme plus other skullduggery, plus long-term Repugnican voter-suppression, plus the Democratic Party USA's inherent ineptness, arrogance, inhumanity and overall scuzzy stupidity, he's President again.
Within the USA's borders, Trump is going to wreak havoc. A lot of Latinos hate unoffical/undocumented/"illegal" alieans. They hate refugees. They figure that THEY played by the rules, so why don't these stupid peasants? They like Trump's social conservatism and they somehow think they'll be immune from the racist shit-storm they're helping bring down. (Because they're conservative.) On another issue, I think Trump is going to spend a lot of time attacking and destroying the FBI/CIA/Media types who subjected him to "Russiagate." And, in that regard, I'm looking forward to it.
With Russia-Ukraine, I don't know what's going to happen. Trump doesn't like to be embarrassed, but Putin is beyond all patience with US duplicity and arrogance and the genuine harm that it has brought to Russia. Putin can get Ukraine's unconditional surrender and he's not going to alter his plans to assuage Trump's ego. And Trump might already dimly perceive this. (Or not.) Because, as I said, I don't know what's going to happen.
But to the article:
Here is what Trump likely wants to accomplish in the Middle East in his second term:
The profit motive will remain primary in his second term as it was in his first. He wants oil and gas puppets in the Middle East to spend lavishly on U.S. arms and other goods. Those despotic puppets won’t disappoint and don’t demand an exorbitant political payment from the White House outside of military support and looking the other way on democracy and human rights. The Saudi government may, however, out of self-interest, demand increased security guarantees from the U.S. in return for normalization with Israel.
As Trump won praise for the Abraham Accords, he may invest in their perpetuation and expansion to new members, especially Saudi Arabia, but also others including Lebanon. Obviously Lebanon is the least likely candidate given the solid military opposition to peace with Israel within a large segment of the population.
Liberals and conservatives alike are still convinced even after a year of Israeli genocide, that peace with Arab despots is sufficient to provide stability for the region (which translates as stability for U.S. interests in the region). But Trump will face a hurdle in attempting to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords; the Saudi public remains staunchly supportive of Palestinian political rights. And the horrific scenes spread throughout Middle East media of Israeli slaughter of Palestinians, Lebanese, Yemenis and Iraqis have only deepened Arab public detestation of Zionism and its crimes.
But Saudi Arabia is willing — for a price — to lower its political requirements for peace with Israel; and recently the Saudi foreign minister indicated that the government no longer demands the establishment of a Palestinian state as a precondition for peace with Israel but merely a declaration of a pathway to a Palestinian state, i.e. a verbal declaration of sorts to assuage the Saudi public.
The way that I see it, Trump believes that by "solving" a problem (where "solving" can mean killing anyone who is inconvenient) he can go down in history as the President who "solved" the whole "Israel-Palestine" issue. And that will be by bribing everyone involved to allow Israel to exterminate the Palestinians.
So I see lot's of USA money and weapons going to the despots in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar. I see more subsidies to the despots in Egypt. I see NEW money going to corrupt politicians in Lebanon. The creation of an official Lebanese military that has the ability to take on Hezbollah. I see lots of money for the duplicitous snake Erdogan in Turkey.
Once the Palestinians have been isolated and then exterminated, there will be no more "Palestinian Question."
What might throw a spanner in the works is that Iran will see this as an opportunity to be a saviour to Muslim pride. (Iran is not an Arab country. But Islam is an Arabic faith. And Arabs, and Arab Muslims, will see Iran standing up for Palestine and will be grateful. Iran, Russia and China will know that the Global South is opposed to US hegemony and colonialism. Iran and Russia both realize that the USA and its NATO puppets are incapable of negotiating in good faith. Hezbolla, Yemen's Houthis, and the Palestinians see this as a fight to the death. Putin especially will have no desire to see the USA succeed anywhere.
Neither Iran, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and, especially, the Palestinians, want to be destroyed. So they will be operating with some sort of calibration. But I think the decline of US supremacy makes anything possible. In the final analysis, I genuinely hope that Trump's ability to calculate what is in his best interest will override his obligations to the status-quo. Trump is a piece of shit. But I always thought he was better than Hillary Clinton on foreign policy and now I think he's better than Biden was and Kamala Harris would have been.
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