It was supposed to be a work of satire. But it is easy for people to take things the wrong way. Even putting "satire" in the title as I did wouldn't prevent an zionist or zionsymp from using my tongue-in-cheek "rethinking" of Adolph Hitler by the same criteria we judge other genocidal maniacs like Bibi and Biden (comparing Hitler's racist obsession with the Jews with Bibi's racist hatred of Arabs; looking at Hitler's opposition to communism according to the way that right-wing shit-fucks like stephen harper etc., similarly see communism as a monstrosity; looking at Hitler's economic accomplishments the way that Biden's supposed good policies today mean that we should OVERLOOK his active support for the murder of two million people. [Obviously if there were six million Palestinians, Bibi and his crew of racist religious nutbars would gleefully starve them all to death without batting an eye.])
But I decided it was too much work for a stupid blog entry so I brought that post to a finish as quick as I could.
I just thought that today I'd write about how, with the Gaza genocide, the Left has once again revealed its pathologies. We seem to be happy just to say that we protested, and then leave it at that. The fact that in a democracy, where there are nominal rights to protest, write to your representatives, and exercise our right to free speech (including the sharing of information via media), the Canadian government can continue to provide diplomatic and material support for an ongoing genocide for eight months, ought to be seen as an indictment of our tactics and the cause for a soul-searching debate about alternatives.
If there is such a debate, I'm not hearing it. It's been the same old thing: The already converted meet outside somewhere, shout slogans, and go home. Don't the leaders of these events ever stop to ponder how the targets of these protests are going to respond to them? Do you really think Justin Trudeau and Crystia Freeland are being kept up at night with fears of these scattered rallies of a few hundred or a few thousand chanters gathering to block traffic every five or so days? Or do you think that they've incorporated such things into their disgusting immoral calculus?
I'm thinking about it right now. I'm imagining that Crystia Freeland is thinking about the zionist vote in Canada and the clear adherence to zionist Israel in most of the mass media. Those voters and that media will turn against her with a vengeance, with smears of "antisemitism" to which her nazi heritage makes her particularly vulnerable.
Now, when I say that much of the Canadian mainstream media is pro-zionist, I'm saying that they're devoted to the idea of Israel as the homeland for the long-persecuted Jewish people. A sanctuary from antisemitism. A modern, democratic state in a region not know for either modernism or democracy (for whatever reasons). I'm not saying that they're craven sycophants of their Jewish paymasters. There is an idealized vision of Israel (just as they have their idealized conceptions of Canada and the USA) that they imagine they're defending by providing cover for genocide.
Freeland is thinking about that, and then she's thinking about her duties as a lieutenant in the USA's global empire. Israel is (primarily through intellectual inertia) seen to represents the USA's interests in the oil-rich Middle East. Therefore it is to be supported. Stepping out of line, just because Israel happens to be acting like Hitler's nazis, is going to be punished.
Freeland has all of that to consider and she weighs it against tolerating peaceful afternoon protests in a few cities, plus some peaceful encampments on University campuses. She thinks about the minor inconveniences that these events cause and decides there's no question but that the costs of ignoring them are far less than the costs of agreeing to their "demands."
The protest movement should have realized this months ago. They should have seen how the media is complicit in omitting the genocide from the daily news cycle, in making the conversation about a rise in "antisemitism." They have noticed how Liberal MPs stopped answering emails and responding to phone calls.
A peaceful movement to end Canada's complicity in genocide, of complicity in the lie of a "peace process," and for a Canadian committment to Palestinian statehood and reconstruction, is going to have to be VAST. It's going to require mobilizing MILLIONS of Canadians. It's got to have clearly articulated demands and clearly defined actions and a goddamned STRATEGY for how to achieve them. It's going to have to figure out how to work around the media's blanket suppressions and distortions and communicate directly with our fellow citizens that our current behaviour is inexcusable. I've always said that while I think the average person has a relatively narrow, self-interested view of the world, that if the truth of some horrible crime is brought before their eyes they're going to respond morally and humanely. We HAVE to get the majority onside. And the movement is going to have to plan for what to do once we have them onside. And its going to have to anticipate the state's violent response to a genuine mass movement and prepare for it.
I mentioned this a couple of times to fellow activists in the groups I signed up to when this crime against humanity began, only to be met with the usual response I get when I try to speak of an alternative to the performative, ineffective tactics; incomprehension and silence.
Obviously, violent protests, involving property destruction and mass arrests would garner more attention and stir the government to action, But that risks individuals suffering personal injuries, escalations of violence, increased media smears and accusations about "terrorism" and a general state crackdown that could leave us weaker than when we started.
So it would be preferable to have a huge peaceful protest movement/general strike against genocide/sit-ins/occupations/boycotts/successful media outreach campaign. And this should have been obvious MONTHS ago. As it stands though, the current "resistance" depends entirely on the limits of Israel's ability to kill Paestinians and the ability of Palestinians to survive without food, clean water, shelter or a healthcare system. While North American "activists" pat themselves on the back for their ineffectual campaigns.
Lastly, I just want to point out that on January 16th of this year I decided to give the Ukraine War a "Friedman Unit" of six months.:
It is January, 2024. I am, in all seriousness, predicting that the Russia-Ukraine War (aka: Russia's "Special Military Operation") will continue for one more "Friedman Unit." ... I'm giving Ukraine six more months when Germany lasted two years following the defeat at Kursk. This is based on my fairly ignorant understanding of the comparable industrial, political, economic and military strength of Ukraine in the 2020's and Germany in the 1940's. ... I don't think that Ukraine in January 2024 has anything near the resources that Germany had in August, 1943. I give them another six months before the current government of Ukraine collapses and is replaced by one more acceptable to Putin's Russia.
It just seemed (to my inexpert eyes) that the Ukrainian state was starting to have difficulty finding the resources necessary to survive, let alone win, this war. The cynical Biden administration has a dull awareness that the war is lost, but, as delusional narcissists, their central concern now is to drag things out so that Ukraine's defeat happens after the upcoming presidential election. In the defective brains of Biden, Blinken and associated shitheads, Biden still has a chance to be re-elected, despite his unpopular support for Israel's genocide, and his shitty, lacklustre accomplishments so far. Ukraine has become hard to fight for in Congress, and they're clearly losing, but perhaps that entire country could just be a sweetheart and continue to have tens of thousands of conscripts die horribly until mid-November? Biden is asking: "Can you do that for me Ukraine? Can you just wait until November 6th before you throw in the towel?"
As if wars can be fought according to the election timetable of senile, racist, patriarchal, self-professed corporate tool!
From what is being reported about the frontlines in Ukraine, their army is crumbling as we speak:
Russia’s attrition strategy will continue to decimate and degrade existing units. As soldiers and commanders die or are wounded, there are no fresh troops waiting in the wings. And, as Ukrainian troops die (or surrender), Russia will continue to press forward on all fronts. There will come a moment when the front will crumble and what is left of the Ukrainian forces on the east side of the Dnieper River will try to scramble to temporary safety on the west bank and try to keep the Russians at bay. I think that could happen by the end of June, but I am confident that Ukraine’s ability to sustain troops in the contested territory will end by September.
I think my 3/4-serious "Friedman Unit" prediction from last January is going to come true and that total collapse will happen in June. And, yes, I notice that my quote from Larry Johnson (who knows more about this stuff, ... vastly more ... than I do) says the collapse will be in September. But this isn't an exact science. The USA's puppet government in Afghanistan had a military that was materially far superior to the Taliban resistance. But it evaporated in two weeks after foreign support was withdrawn. Ukraine's military is materially far weaker than its opponent and it is running on fumes. Only about $13 billion of the recent $60 billion "aid" package from the USA is for new weapons. That will be insufficient. Somebody somewhere said something like "An enemy army resists, resists, until it suddenly stops. Then it collapses." I think Ukraine's army is on its last legs, leaning against the ropes.
2 comments:
Ukraine IS going down. I don't think it is going to be all that long before there start to be pieces of the front line they just don't have people or ammunition to defend. Obviously they'll try to strip the quietest places and hope nobody notices there's only a token force left . . . but the Russians are presumably expecting that. There will come a time when the Russians start squidging through the gaps, and when they do they will start cutting off Ukrainian forces.
I read the article . . . I think it's generally right, but I think the guy spent too much time talking about tanks. Tanks aren't all that relevant to Ukraine on defence. They use them some, then they get blown up, but they aren't the big deal. The main thing the Ukrainians have that is still effective at blunting Russian attacks is drones. They still seem to have quite a few drones, although maybe not as many as a few months ago. The other effective thing would be artillery, but they're only using that stuff when they really have to because the artillery situation is so lopsided that every time they start using some artillery the Russians cream it with counterbattery fire. There was always a mismatch, but I used to see lots of Ukrainian artillery fire in the daily "What's happening at the front" thingie I watch, and now there's very little--right now it's pretty much only being used on the new front near Kharkiv, and probably not for very long because it's getting swatted.
It's still not quite a walkover. Ukrainians can hold positions, with a combination of infantry hanging tough in decent cover and drones to take out attacking armoured vehicles. If they run out of drones, or drone operators, they are toast. But I do feel like even when it comes to drones, they got less than they used to (and the Russians have more).
At that, I'm pretty sure the Russians could be moving forward quite a bit faster than they are if they were willing to spend more troops. But their emphasis is on attrition, both inflicting it and avoiding it. I still think half the point of any given Russian attack is to force the Ukrainians to defend, pinpointing their positions, and move reinforcements to the front line, exposing forces on the roads. The attacks are to find Ukrainians so they can bomb them or drone them or whatever. Pushing forward if there are hardly any left after that is nice, but almost a side effect.
Purple library guy,
That all sounds reality-based. I'm just of the opinion that Ukraine's forces are hollowing out and that I honestly don't think they'll last to the end of June.
As I said, I'm no expert, ... but recently there's stories about badly needed troops sent to man defensive positions near Kharkov and finding out that the defenses were paid for but never built. (Does 30% qualify as "built"?)
They don't have enough soldiers for the Donbas and now they're stripping that front for Russia's reconaissance-in-force around Kharkov, and the Russians are themselves surprised at the ease of their advance.
When you consider that many Ukrainian soldiers are middle-aged men dragooned into service, who were complaining about shortages half-a-year ago, ... I think the end is near. Drones or not.
I'll be interested to see what happens after the war. Putin doesn't want to punish Ukrainians collectively. But the government he allows will be pro-Russian and it will pursue vengeance on any pro-NATO stooges who weren't able to flee. Depending on how many NATO country assets are left behind, they'll help finance Ukraine's reconstruction.
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